Is the Number of Internet Users Inflated?
30 July, 2009
by Satrajit Sen
Recently, Rediff.com CEO Ajit Balakrishnan, while speaking at a conference, said that a part of the reason why the government support for broadband penetration did not happen was that IAMAI (Internet and Mobile Association of India) focused on stating bigger and bigger user numbers. “They quoted 50 million, when the base was 10 million. Most of the members of IAMAI committee were youngsters looking to raise capital, so larger numbers helped them. When we went to the government, they said -- what’s the problem? (You have a large base anyway),” Balakrishnan said. In the light of that statement, AlooTechie talked with some of the industry leaders and tried to find out what is the real number of internet users in India?
While talking about the IAMAI numbers, Harish Bahl, founder and CEO, Smile Interactive Technologies Group, said he didn’t think that the numbers (of internet users in India) are inflated. Prashanth Kumar, director, digital strategies, Wunderman, also agreed with Bahl and felt that the numbers presently are rather misrepresented then being inflated. “My personal belief is that the numbers are not a reflection of the reality. If all users could be considered, I am confident the current estimate will surely be revised upwards,” Kumar said.
According to Mrutyunjay Mishra, COO, Juxt, inflation in numbers depends on which lens one is using to evaluate the number of usage. Illustrating his point, Mishra said, “TRAI (Telecom Regulatory Authority of India) recently reported mobile internet user number. Now, mobile internet could mean a user who is either using internet through a mobile browser on the handset, or using an internet application on handset (ticketing, social network, etc), or using a push mail service, or using data services running through WAP/GPRS, where one can just download a ringtone. The question is which one TRAI is referring to.”
Prashanth Kumar of Wunderman felt that right now it is a struggle to decide the right source giving the exact number of internet users in the country. “Ideally, there should be some sort of source which is equivalent to China Internet Network Information Centre (CNNIC). Currently, we don’t have any such source and hence it becomes difficult for us to reach a consensus. However, in the absence of a common standard, practitioners of digital marketing should agree upon a common measure and stick to that,” said Kumar.
According to Satish Kadu, product head, Komli Media, various 3rd party surveys indicate that internet penetration in India is projected to be in the range of 30 to 80 million, whereas the active user base who access internet at least once a month is somewhere between 25 million and 60 million. “ViziSense (Komli Media’s online audience measurement and analytics platform) has considered this range as a starting point, and as per our internal estimates, we believe it to be around 40 million active users for May 2009, employing proprietary statistical techniques such as iterative proportional fit, conducting in-house surveys using Random Digit Dialling, and cross validating site reach with internal publisher stats and cookie based census measurements,” Kadu said.
Harish Bahl suggested that the IAMAI numbers, according to which India has currently about 45 million active internet users, should be considered to be the close. He also said that although there is a gap between various reports about the number of internet users but the gap is reducing anyways. Bahl further said, “It’s good that the research companies have competition as competition always helps get a more accurate report.”
Mrutyunjay Mishra of Juxt felt that more than asking whose numbers to consider, we should be asking ourselves why this number is closest to reality. “We still don't have the best methodology available to us in India. The ideal situation could have been Indian Census counting number of PC owning homes, PC users, mobile users, internet users (regular, daily etc.) and mobile internet users etc. In the absence of the government doing that, what we can afford is estimation studies and estimators like us will have competition as we all try the same guys to fund us for estimation. Hence, any method is still not ‘the ultimate method’ possible,” he said. Mishra further stated that besides methodology, the difference in definition of an internet user creates this whole confusion of multiple numbers from multiple sources.
Agreeing on the same Sanjeev Bikhchandani, co-founder and CEO, Info Edge India (Naukri.com), said that the confusion is actually due to the difference in definition used to denote an internet user. “Moreover, there is no one who can give the exact number of cyber cafe users in India and also how many people are accessing internet through a shared connection. Uniformity in definitions is something that the industry should look forward to,” Bikhchandani suggested.
Speaking about definitions, Harish Bahl of Smile Interactive said that anyone who has used the medium even once should be considered as an internet user. “But it is also very important to classify the active user separately and there has to be one credible currency that we all operate on for the online advertising industry to grow,” Bahl added.
Prashanth Kumar of Wunderman, however, felt that one who uses the medium on a fairly regular basis should be regarded as actual internet user. “While daily usage might not be the best criterion (even as a digital marketing professional, I myself try and keep off the internet at least one day of the week), a usage of at least once every couple of days should be the very minimum,” he said.
Commenting on the same issue, Mrutyunjay Mishra of Juxt said, “For all practical purposes, we should only be bothered about two types of users depending on access -- PC based and Mobile based. Mobile-based internet is still very low and will take some time but most likely the next mass of internet users are going to come from that and hence one should concentrate to gauge that number of users.”
When asked what one should do to get the government support for increasing internet penetration, Harish Bahl said that the industry should rather become more united to get support from the government. “We should have people with the right contacts representing the industry, engage the government more in our programmes and activities and have more services on the internet which are of interest to the government and are addressing the real challenges of rural and urban India and align more with the government policies in fields of education, employment, healthcare, tourism, and security,” he added.
Commenting on the need for governmental help for the industry, Prashanth Kumar of Wunderman said that the responsibility of providing the necessary infrastructure lies with the government and the planning needs to take into consideration the fact of projecting the usage numbers. “India is slated to be the world’s third largest internet population by 2015, according to Forrester Research. The bandwidth capabilities need to cater to that rather than going incrementally at a snail’s pace,” stated Kumar.
Agreeing on the same, Sanjeev Bikhchandani of Naukri.com said that more than the number of internet users, it is important to increase the broadband penetration in India and the industry should come together to vouch for the governmental support in making broadband more accessible in the country.
However, Mrutyunjay Mishra of Juxt was not too sure about the ways the government could support the industry as he felt that the government usually announces a lot of things before and after the elections. “I remember two years back one minister saying we will reach 100 million mark by 2009 and 500 million by 2011. The current minister must also be saying the same with the years shifting by two,” he said.
“An association would cry the regular crib of the government and the regulators not being friendly and on the other hand, a private operator will try creating all possible impediments for a public sector company to grow. Someone will put a court case because of not getting a share from the tender and then there will be rumours that someone paid bribe for not letting go the license to another. Everyone has his own vested interests and the governmental support will take its own time,” Mishra added.
Related Story
Why researchers differ on the number of internet users?
Kumar has said it...Ideally, there should be some sort of source which is equivalent to China Internet Network Information Centre (CNNIC). Currently, we don’t have any such source and hence it becomes difficult for us to reach a consensus. That's were the crux of the problem is. now even if we do not have a system in place it is always better to stick to one source of data which everyone agrees to unanimously. and until then we will surely have numbers quotes here and there and everywhere
what the current number and how the number of users can be increased is something that doesn't have a correct answer. Government must surely come forward and make the broadband reach even the remote places where the internet is still inaccessible.
An interesting insight put into the most popular topic of our lives since the advent of internet.Every amenity has a good and a bad side to it. I hope the world keeps internet to the good side.
One important consideration is that global internet std tools like Comscore continue to be terrible in India, and paint an inaccurate picture. With their panel not considering anyone below 15 and no cybercafes (which account for 50% of user access), all their numbers are up for questioning. We are left to use internal tools and advertisers and partners dont find any of this credible.
While not as bad a joke as TAM in the TV world, a 100% monitorable medium like the internet deserves better. This comes down to the often debated "leadership" which exists in todays' Indian internet. We need fresh, professional blood to replace some of these seat-warmers and then you will see overall credibility of the industry rise. With it will rise revenues, users etc etc.
everyone in online industry know what the the issues are from day 1 but no one whats to deal with it. the frustration is seen among everyone but that's it nothing after that.
NEED of the hr is to set up independent body, with defined method to measure & transparent systems are not put in place then its all going effect the the revenues and the other mediums will always play down on this. All portals shd support this with transparency. This is only when it will work
Else we all can continue to cry n talk n crib......
Check this article interesting.
http://in.news.yahoo.com/139/20090730/854/ttc-web-addresses-exceed-world...
There are two important issues here. One, Ajit's reference is to the claims made by IAMA prior to 2007 probably, when the body came out with a report of a 50 million user base. That number was definitely pure ISO 9000 certified crap.
The second issue is why it was done? Yes, showing the potential in India was definitely one issue, but a critical issue was also the need for all the jokers Ajit refers to show growth to their investors. You could hardly claim the month on month 20% growth they were claiming on the real numbers India had. So that was another factor to show almost a monthly increase in subscribers nationally.
Even today, I suspect most of the claims, especially in the mobile space are laugable. Speak to any serious mobile player, and he will tell you that the money is in VAS, not in mobile advertising. And yet, we hear ridiculous claims on impressions delivered by various mobile ad networks etc. Like the internet, their best is probably 3-4 years away.
Ajit(very courageously), has indicated how stupid we were, he is right, but the quotes in the article continues the hara-kiri, the award goes to wizisense, giving an estimated range of internet users from 30 to 80 million, and then settling for the average of 40 million by using RDD(lolz! where did you read this Satish? Nielson-online, no one uses this method other than them, and its very expensive, and in no ways you have done it!). While wizisense feels the reports are varying right from 30 to 80 million, Harish bahl thinks reports are getting close, hmmmmmm Who may be right? Ah no one. And in the middle Prashant, Mishra and Sanjeev have asserted that we need more clear data, which is nothing more than weak prayer.
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